Cross Posted from the Iowa Weather Network WeatherBlog at iaswc.org!
It doesn’t seem all that likely but it is still a Chance. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Slight Chance of Severe Weather (15% Probabilistic) for Northwestern Iowa (see graphic to the left) Even though this threat still looks quite small, We could see some Large Hail and Damaging Winds with it. Tornadoes are unlikely, But possible. You can never rule that out.
So, here’s how it will play out. An upper level ridge will be in place in Western Iowa Friday Morning with Southwest Winds. A strong cap is expected to be in place in the morning with it beginning to Weaken in the Afternoon. This will therefore allow Thunderstorms to start Exploding across the Dakotas, and will eventually begin to trek across Minnesota and Iowa where it is expected to strengthen, and eventually weaken in Eastern Minnesota. As it Strengthen’s, it is expected to Expand where we could see the Slight Risk enlarge to More parts of Western Iowa, but we do not expect to see that happen. These storms will last into the Early evening, But we should see the threat ended around 7-9PM Friday. At this time, Iowa will have a Stable enough Environment to Keep the Storms from enhancing, However, we could see a Supercell develop around the late afternoon, But it is currently unlikely as well.
We will post the latest updates as they come in; But once again, this threat seems quite low at this time. If you do have Outdoor plans scheduled for tomorrow in Northwest Iowa, make sure to check the Official Forecast at www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd, Just look for the “Local Forecast by City, St. or Zip Code box”