Prepared by Henry Luker, Lead Forecaster
And we all thought that we were done with severe weather, told ourselves that the low tornadoes record was shattered and final, and pretty much dismissed the fact that there is always a possibility of severe weather in October, even though that it has happened with a large boom! Well, it looks like we thought wrong. We have been monitoring a possible storm system over the last couple of weeks, and it looks like it will bring something that we have not seen in a long time. Severe weather.
An unusual October-like system is forecasted to develop later this week across the upper midwest. A western trough is expected to move into the region on Friday with a rapidly deepening surface low moving into southeastern Minnesota from the Nebraska/Iowa border on Friday night. One of the main convective ingredients that is always a factor in severe weather is dew points. Anything in the 60’s and 70’s is conductive for severe weather. Well, dew points in the mid 60’s will already be in place across the area. With cool temperatures aloft on top of a moist surface, severe weather will be in the perfect conditions to develop Friday.
Supercells will have the capability to produce tornadoes, some strong and very large hail. This system still has many questions with it as the timing of it has not completely panned out, and models can change quickly, especially with this system being nearly 4 days out. If the front moves too fast or initiation begins too early, this could turn into more of a damaging winds threat with a linear like system. More details should be available later on.
Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!