The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has upgraded a large part of north central and northwestern Iowa to a MODERATE risk of severe weather. Models have gotten into better agreement on the system and the predictability on the system has increased. The moderate risk depicts where the best chance of severe weather will be – generally along the “triple point” – the area where the ampliying upper trough, deepened surface low, and warm front will meet. With dew points conductive and perfect conditions for storms, several supercells will likely generate on Friday.
The primary threats with this system will be large hail and tornadoes, some possibly strong. this threat is turning into a serious situation and people need to keep an eye on this. We are also monitoring todays situation, where large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.