Isolated-to-Scattered Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late this Afternoon

In All Posts, Forecasts, Severe Weather by Henry Luker0 Comments

An unsettled weather period will continue through the weekend, as defined by a a large upper ridge in the west and a deep low pressure system over Hudson Bay, which will present cyclonic flow over much of the far north central and northeastern United States today. The area of concern over our area today will be an upstream shortwave, currently located over the Northern Rockies region, which will dig into the midwest this afternoon and into tonight. A warm front, currently extending into the Plains, will also move into the area today.

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GFS 01/00z Run – 500mb Heights/RV – Valid 7:00 p.m. tonight

A look at the radar as of 2:00 a.m. this morning shows several areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms over Nebraska and South Dakota. Some of this activity may continue into this morning and afternoon, especially as things begin to heat up as the sun rises. The lovely moist and sticky air that we were lucky to get a break from for a while will make a return to the state along the warm front mentioned with dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s for many. When combined with temperatures in the 80s and 90s, heat indexes may reach the upper 90s at some locations. Moderate-to-strong instability should develop in the mid-to-late afternoon with storms firing in the IA/NE/SD/MN border region, or where the warm front will connect with a nearby dry line.

As storms begin to fire in the region mentioned above, quick upscale growth into a multi-supercellular system is expected with all modes of severe weather possible, especially as the low level jet increases in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center currently has an elevated risk of severe weather outlined over the entire state due to the threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Flash flooding is also another threat with all of the rainfall that we have received as of late. It would not be particularly surprising to see some areas of the slight risk upgraded to an enhanced risk due to the enhanced large hail and tornado risk. The system will likely evolve into a Mesoscale Convective System as the night goes on and an assumed damaging wind threat continuing. The threat for tornadoes will likely not drop either with enhanced shear as the LLJ increases.

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Either way, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the weather today and check in for further updates. Stay tuned for the latest!

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