Conditional Severe Weather Threat Today; Very Large Hail and Tornadoes Possible

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After several minor severe weather episodes, an organized severe weather event may be making a return to the state. However, with many episodes this year, this is all very conditional and dependent on what happens with an ongoing Mesoscale Convective Vortex moving through the Plains early this morning. There is not terrific predictability with this system at this time, and we would advise you to look to future updates this morning for more information.

As noted above, there is an ongoing Mesoscale Convective Vortex moving from the Central Plains into the northern half of the Mississippi Valley. A lot of the uncertainties we face with the forecast today is how this system will evolve as we go into the daytime hours. There is a chance that this could re-fire in a diurnal environment, however models and past experience dictate that this probably not be the case, and things should decay across the northern section of the Mississippi Valley. This should just dump some small-to-moderate rain over the western counties of the state and not pose a threat for severe weather.

The higher probability situation expected is that as storms decay and move off to the east, storms will re-fire along the southern extent of leftover outflow boundaries. This will be in a rich severe weather environment, with plenty of moisture and warm summer air contributing to a very unstable atmosphere. Another area of uncertainty exists in the area of storm timing. Models are not in too much of an agreement on this matter, with some indicating mid-to-late afternoon development with an associated very large hail and tornado threat, and some indicating development after sunset with an associated damaging wind threat.

Nonetheless, it’s important to stay tuned to the latest forecast and check back in later this morning for further updates.

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