Rain Begins Late this Afternoon

In Evening Brief by Henry LukerLeave a Comment

Happy Tuesday. What a day — we started out last night by seeing snow across much of northern Iowa, dropping as much as two inches in some areas. That snow didn’t last long, with high temperatures hitting the low-to-mid 50s, making for a marvelous timelapse on the Fayette KCRG camera.

1. Rain on the Way

HRRR Output from 00z

Rain is on the way for today. The high-resolution HRRR model is painting snow developing over southwest Iowa by 1:00 p.m. this afternoon and quickly spreading northeast. Most of this will be light-to-moderate in nature, no significant rainfall is anticipated.

Southern Iowa is actually expected to be relatively clear overnight — those north of Interstate 80 will be dealing with rain through the morning hours Thursday. The WPC has at least a quarter-inch of rainfall here, with amounts as high as 1.25″ towards northwest Iowa (see the above featured image, which goes through five days). The backside of the system may produce some showers over southern Iowa Thursday as well.

2. Warming through the Weekend

The cool temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will quickly rebound to the low 70s by Sunday. Saturday should be a fairly nice day across the day, though slight chances of showers will exist. Models are still getting their act together on the late-week system hence the slight chances, but I do believe the bulk of the rain will be on Sunday night. Temperatures drop a bit for Monday and Tuesday, though do note that Des Moine’s normal high for today is 58°.

3. Late Weekend Rain

ECMWF Output from 12z

We’re continuing to monitor a potentially significant system towards the latter half of the weekend. Widespread rainfall is expected late Sunday night and into Monday. It’s still too early to get into specific details and uncertainty still exists, but keep an eye on it if you have plans.

4. Looking Ahead

Both the ECMWF and GFS seem to keep us relatively quiet going into next week with seasonal temperatures. Activity picks up closer to two weeks out (the 15th) with rain and thunderstorm chances.

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