Over the last week, dry conditions continued in the Desert Southwest and in parts of the Central Rockies, leading to drought persistence and degradation in these areas. Farther east across the Great Plains, scattered thunderstorms led to some areas improving or staying out of drought, while some areas that missed the rain were degraded. In the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, precipitation patterns also dictated areas which experienced degrading and improving conditions. Near normal or wetter than normal conditions occurred over most of the eastern United States, where few changes to the USDM depiction were made.
The National Weather Service medium range forecast calls for two significant areas of wet weather over the next 7 days (June 13 to June 20). Widespread and potentially heavy rainfall is expected to bring 2 to 5 inches of rain to coastal and central Texas and southern Louisiana. Rainfall may also extend into the Southern Plains and the remainder of the Gulf Coast region.
Farther north, showers and thunderstorms are likely from the Northern Rockies to the High Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Rainfall over the northern tier is likely to be locally heavy (3 to 5 inches) creating the potential for isolated flooding. In contrast, dry weather is expected to prevail over the Pacific Coast and the drought inflicted areas of southern California, southern Nevada, and western Utah.
June warmth continued across the Midwest over the past week with temperatures of 6 or more degrees warmer than normal recorded in southwest Illinois, much of Missouri, and central and western Iowa. Although rain occurred over large sections of the region, pockets of continued dryness and high temperatures resulted in low streamflows, soil moisture deficits, and vegetation stress and led to the introduction of severe drought in northeast and central Missouri and southeast Iowa as well as a small expansion of moderate drought. Heavy rains in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa, led to the removal of all or parts abnormally dry areas. Farther north, dry conditions in the Michigan Upper Peninsula, northern Wisconsin, and far east-central Minnesota led to the expansion of abnormally dry conditions where short term precipitation deficits continued to build.