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MONITOR

Latest drought monitor over the midwest

OUTLOOKs



Monthly drought outlook


CHANGE OVER TIME

One Week US Drought Monitor Class Change

PRECIP. NEEDED TO END

Amount of precipitation needed to end drought

PALMER DROUGHT INDEX

Drought severity index by division

DEPARTURES

4 month precipitation departures

VEGETATION (VegDri)

Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), complete, Iowa

STANDARD PRECIP INDEX

Standard precipitation index

TOPSOIL MOISTURE

USDA Topsoil Moisture by Short-VeryShort

STATISTICS

Week Date None Abnormally Dry Moderate Severe Extreme Exceptional DSCI
Current 2024-03-12 0.86 99.14 84.39 56.37 20.18 0.00 260
Last Week 2024-03-05 0.89 99.11 79.70 56.37 20.18 0.00 255
Start of Calendar Year 2024-01-02 2.77 97.23 83.41 65.09 35.18 0.00 281
Three Months Ago 2023-12-12 0.57 99.43 84.33 62.08 27.47 0.00 273
Start of Water Year 2023-09-26 0.01 99.99 95.65 67.41 25.00 1.17 289
One Year Ago 2023-03-07 32.45 67.55 32.07 15.54 1.51 0.57 117

DISCUSSION

Moderate to heavy rain amounts fell across parts of the Southeast and Northeast this week, leading to localized improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in the Southeast, and mostly unchanged conditions in the Northeast, aside from western New York, which missed out on the heavier precipitation and saw minor degradations. The central third of the contiguous U.S. saw a mix of improvements and degradations, based on where heavier precipitation did or did not fall and where dry and windy conditions continued. Parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, the Michigan Lower Peninsula, southern Missouri and southeast Kansas saw improving conditions after heavier rains fell there. Meanwhile, moderate drought expanded in northwest Missouri and portions of west-central Wisconsin, Minnesota, northwest Iowa, the far southern Michigan Upper Peninsula and far northeast Wisconsin. Much of Texas remained the same, with a few degradations in the southeast corner and several degradations in central and southern Texas where long-term drought conditions are still causing impacts. Recent dryness and warm and windy weather in northwest Oklahoma and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles led to abnormal dryness developing there. Short-term dryness and high evaporative demand led to large areas of degrading conditions in northeast Wyoming, while west-central Wyoming, north-central Colorado, northeast Utah, western Montana, and the northern Idaho Panhandle all saw areas of improvement due to lower evaporative demand and improving snowpack recently. In Hawaii, an active trade wind pattern continued, leading to some improvements on the windward (northeast) slopes of the Big Island and Kauai, while a small area of moderate drought developed on the leeward (southwest) portion of Kauai. In Puerto Rico, a few improvements were made where recent rainfall has improved streamflows and crop stress, and lessened rainfall deficits and raised reservoir levels. No changes were made to the Drought Monitor this week in Alaska.

Forecast

According to forecasts from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, heavy snowfall is forecast in the Colorado Front Range area near the beginning of the forecast period (March 14-15), while heavy precipitation with this storm system is also likely across other parts of the Four Corners states. Aside from portions of the Four Corners states, much of the West is likely to stay dry through Monday evening. Farther east, through Monday evening, half an inch (or more) of precipitation is forecast from central Nebraska eastward into parts of the Rust Belt. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, is also forecast from central Texas eastward through southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and southeast Missouri to most of Georgia and Tennessee and southern Kentucky.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast favors near-normal precipitation or above-normal precipitation across the contiguous U.S., covering the period from March 19-23. The highest confidence areas for above-normal precipitation are the Florida Peninsula, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Arizona/New Mexico border northward through Montana. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the West, especially in Utah, Nevada, California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon, and in parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Below-normal temperatures are favored in the Southeast, excluding the southern Florida Peninsula where near- or above-normal temperatures are favored. Below-normal temperatures are also favored from central Montana eastward through North Dakota and northern South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, with below-normal temperatures slightly favored in the Ohio River Valley and Rust Belt.

In Hawaii, cooler-than-normal temperatures are favored. Below-normal precipitation is likely on all islands except for the Big Island, where near-normal precipitation is favored. Warmer-than-normal weather is favored in Alaska, especially in the western reaches of the state. Wetter-than-normal weather is favored for central, northern and western Alaska, while drier-than-normal weather is favored in southeast Alaska.

Midwest

Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across the entire Midwest region over the past week. Compared to normal, the warmest areas were in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, where temperatures mostly ranged from 4-12 degrees above normal, with locally warmer readings. Locally heavy rain (over 2 inches in some locations) fell in central and southwest Missouri, while rain also occurred in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. A few areas of precipitation occurred in Iowa and southern Wisconsin, but northern Iowa, central and northern Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan were mostly dry this week. In central and southwest Missouri, streamflow and short-term precipitation deficits improved enough for some improvements to ongoing moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness. In northwest Missouri, where precipitation was mostly absent this week, continued dry, warm and windy weather combined with lowering soil moisture and streamflow led to expansions of moderate drought. Similar conditions in southwest Kentucky led to a small expansion of abnormal dryness, consistent with the one made in northwest Tennessee. In Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, far southeast Wisconsin and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, localized heavier precipitation in the last few weeks led to improving short-term precipitation deficits and streamflow. Therefore, abnormal dryness coverage dropped this week in some of these areas. Low snowpack, decreasing soil moisture and dry and warm weather from the last couple months led to expansions in moderate drought in west-central Wisconsin; northeast Wisconsin and the southern Michigan Upper Peninsula; northeast, south-central and southwest Minnesota; and northwest Iowa.