Fire Weather Outlook Discussion

Days 3 - 8 Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

FNUS28 KWNS 242035
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

An upper-level trough positioned over the northern Rockies into the
northern Great Plains will become quasi-stationary while developing
an upper-level closed low over south-central Canada through
D4/Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level low is forecast to move
slowly east while ridging continues to develop in the West. The
ridge may begin to break down toward the end of the forecast period
as a series of mid-level short-wave troughs could enter the Pacific
Northwest.

...D3/Monday and D5/Wednesday: Portions of the Great Basin and
southern Wyoming...
Mid-level flow along the western periphery of the aforementioned
trough will be marginally enhanced (30-40 kt) over the region, which
may allow afternoon winds near the surface to be sustained in the
15-20 mph range for at least parts of the region on the both days.
Meanwhile, warm/dry conditions will persist near the surface on both
days amidst receptive fuels, particularly D5/Wednesday. Mid-range
guidance is showing considerable spread in the magnitude of surface
winds on D3/Monday, but it appears at least some potential will
exist for elevated fire-weather conditions across the region.
Likewise, probabilities introduced on D5/Wednesday have been
confined to the most probable overlap in the wind/RH/fuels combo
depicted at this time.

...Pacific Northwest...
The aforementioned ridging will begin building into portions of the
Pacific Northwest early in the forecast period. This may allow for
offshore flow to develop along portions of the Oregon coast on
D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday. Thereafter, the mid-level short-wave
troughs may begin affecting the region, from D5/Wednesday through
D7/Friday. Should this occur, there would be a notable threat for
dry thunderstorm potential over the region. No highlights have been
introduced at this time given a fair amount of forecast uncertainty
in these mesoscale features, but such conditions will be monitored
for potential inclusion in subsequent outlooks.

..Karstens.. 08/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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