Fire Weather Outlook Discussion

Days 3 - 8 Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

FNUS28 KWNS 232125
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

An upper-level trough will slowly move into the Pacific Northwest
this week and eventually into the northern/Canadian Rockies next
weekend. Mid-level winds of 40-60 knots will stretch over the
northwest Great Basin this week and slowly shift southeast across
much of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. A Pacific cold
front will move into the Pacific Northwest and into  portions of the
Great Basin on Day 5/Thursday - Day 6/Friday. While dry/windy
conditions are expected across a wide swath of the Intermountain
West, fuel conditions preclude larger areas/higher probabilities.
However, these dry/windy conditions will help precondition fuels.

...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: portions of the Great Basin into
the Southwest...
Critical winds/RH are likely to develop across much of northwest
Nevada, portions of southern Nevada, and western Utah on Day
3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday. Downslope flow and deep boundary layer
mixing transporting stronger mid-level flow downward will increase
westerly surface winds across northwest Nevada/vicinity. A
strengthening pressure gradient in the Great Basin (surface low in
the northern Great Basin) and deep boundary layer mixing will
increase surface winds across southern Nevada/western Utah.

40% probabilities of critical conditions are only delineated across
northwest Nevada and southern Nevada/vicinity where pockets of fine
fuels have cured. Otherwise, a wet winter/spring and recent cool/wet
weather have ERCs mostly near normal at mid/upper elevations. As the
trough slowly shifts south/east, stronger winds are likely to
stretch into portions of the Southwest, especially northern Arizona,
by Day 5/Thursday. Critical winds/RH may continue across portions of
the Great Basin/Arizona on Day 6/Friday, but enough forecast
uncertainty remains precluding probabilities for critical
conditions.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop across
portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies.
However, fuel conditions and forecast cooler temperatures/higher RH
will likely mitigate fire ignition/spread. Dry/breezy conditions are
likely to develop along the western slope of Colorado into southern
Wyoming on Day 4/Wednesday - Day 7/Saturday. Lower elevation fine
fuels may become sufficiently dry for critical conditions, and this
will be monitored going forward for future outlooks.

..Nauslar.. 06/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$