Fire Weather Outlook Discussion

Days 3 - 8 Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

FNUS28 KWNS 222055
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

An upper-level shortwave trough will move out of the Southwest and
into the Southeast on Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday, and an
upper-level trough is likely to track southeast across the Great
Lakes into the Northeast on Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday. These
troughs are likely to bring precipitation to much of the eastern
CONUS. The main storm track will be across the northern tier of the
CONUS beyond Day 4/Thursday, although an upper-level shortwave
trough may move into the Southwest on Day 7/Sunday - Day 8/Monday.
Overall, the fire threat remains low given recent and forecast
precipitation across areas that may experience critical winds/RH
during the outlook period.

On Day 4/Thursday, dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may develop
across portions of northeast Montana into western/northern North
Dakota. However, critical conditions are unlikely to develop and
precipitation may fall across portions of this area on Day
3/Wednesday.

Dry/windy conditions are forecast to develop across portions of the
Southwest/southern High Plains on Day 7/Sunday - Day 8/Monday, but
uncertainty remains regarding the timing/location/strength of the
upper-level trough moving into the Southwest. Fuels across portions
of the Southwest/southern High Plains may not be receptive given the
ongoing/forecast precipitation across this region through Day
2/Tuesday, but the region should be experience warm/dry conditions
after Day 2/Tuesday.

..Nauslar.. 04/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$