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FNUS28 KWNS 162231 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs, especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin. Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by D8/Thursday. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present. ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$