Fire Weather Outlook Discussion

Day 1 - Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

FNUS21 KWNS 221622

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z


The elevated area was removed as latest guidance shows more locally
elevated conditions developing as the mid-level jet remains farther
south in northern Mexico and ongoing/forecast cloud cover should
result in lighter winds/higher RH than previously forecast.
Additionally, locally elevated conditions (southerly sustained winds
of 10-15 mph with RH values of 25-30%) may develop across portions
of Michigan this afternoon.

..Nauslar.. 04/22/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/

An upper-level low located over the Desert Southwest will shift
southeastward slowly, reaching portions of southern Arizona/northern
Mexico by the end of the forecast period. Consequently, most of the
modestly enhanced flow along the base of the trough/low will reside
outside of the CONUS, except for portions of the southern High
Plains where mid-level flow of 30-35 kt will enter by mid-afternoon.
At the surface, a cold front will sag south through the central High
Plains and stall across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and
northeastern New Mexico. Meanwhile, a remnant dryline will extend
south into portions of south-central New Mexico.

...Southern New Mexico...
West of the dryline, afternoon temperatures will approach the upper
70s to lower 80s F with resulting RH values falling into the lower
teens. Vertical mixing will allow winds near to the surface to be
sustained near 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph, during the afternoon.
Thus, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected where fuels
remain marginally receptive. The previous forecast has been refined
slightly to account for higher RH values that are now forecast into
portions of far southwestern New Mexico, and slight adjustments were
made elsewhere based on the last high-resolution HRRR/RAP model

...Please see for graphic product...