Fire Weather Outlook Discussion

Day 2 - Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

FNUS22 KWNS 130748
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTH TEXAS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...

...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather will continue on D2/Friday on the
western and southern periphery of a cut-off low across the southern
Plains.  This low will gradually migrate eastward away from the
region through the overnight hours, although strong (40-60 kt)
mid-level flow will continue across the region through most of the
forecast period.  A lingering strong pressure gradient and vertical
mixing processes will result in breezy to windy surface conditions
amidst a dry surface airmass, increasing fire weather potential from
western Oklahoma to the Rio Grande Valley.  Farther west, offshore
flow will continue across southwestern California, although this
flow should be weaker compared to D1/Thursday.  As such, fire
weather headlines are withheld for this outlook update in that area.

...Western Oklahoma southward into Deep South Texas...
A belt of strong (15-30 mph) northerly flow will exist throughout
much of the forecast period just west of a surface low centered over
northern Louisiana and vicinity.  This flow will be strongest in
portions of south Texas, where 40 mph gusts appear possible.  As
temperatures warm within this corridor, RH values sill fall to
around 20-35% - lowest along the Rio Grande River.  Continued
dormant fuels will support potential for fire spread, with critical
fire weather delineations remaining in place where atmospheric
conditions are most supportive of large fires.  The elevated
delineation remains in place on the western periphery of areas
expected to experience widespread snow and rain through D1/Thursday.

..Cook.. 12/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$