Convective Outlook

Days 4 - 8 Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

ACUS48 KWNS 240810
SWOD48
SPC AC 240809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper low over the Pacific Northwest will eventually weaken and
lift north into BC in the D5-D6 period, with an amplifying upper
ridge over the central US. This will maintain moderate southwest
winds aloft over the northern Rockies through the period. Meanwhile,
a moist and very unstable air mass will remain over the northern
Plains each day.

On Thursday/D4, MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will develop into
east-central MT, where southeast surface winds will bring lower 60s
F dewpoints west out of the Dakotas. Veering winds with height and
good hodograph length will favor supercells capable of very large
hail. A nocturnal increase in the low-level jet may support severe
weather into western ND as well.

A somewhat similar setup is forecast into ND for Friday/D5, but the
low-level jet will not be as backed, and there is increasing
uncertainty due in part to the previous day's storms. Beyond D5,
models differ as to how much flow will remain south of the Canadian
border, but at least a low probability of severe storms will remain
across parts of ND and northern MN through the end of the period as
instability remains strong.

..Jewell.. 06/24/2019