Convective Outlook

Days 4 - 8 Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

025 
ACUS48 KWNS 140841
SWOD48
SPC AC 140840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather concerns are not expected on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. An
upper-level ridge will move across the Plains on Thursday and then
the eastern U.S. on Friday. In the wake of the ridge, a weak trough
will traverse the Plains on Friday within broader cyclonic
upper-level flow across the western two-thirds of the country.
Modest boundary layer moisture spreading northward across the Plains
ahead of a weak cold front on Friday could be sufficient for
overnight thunderstorms, but weak shear and limited instability will
preclude severe concerns.

...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon -- Southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley
Vicinity...

By Day 6/Sat, an upper trough will begin to deepen across the
western U.S., resulting in a broad area of intensifying
southwesterly flow across the Plains into the Midwest through early
next week as the trough shifts eastward. Thunderstorm chances will
increase across the southern/central Plains by Saturday night as a
lee cyclone develops over eastern CO. At this time, severe potential
Saturday night appears low as northward moisture return is still
occurring with potential for elevated convection and capping
concerns. By Day 7/Sun the surface low is expected to strengthen and
lift northeast across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest.
Strong warm advection is forecast to result in a broad warm sector
from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains eastward across
much of the Midwest and southern U.S. into Day 8/Mon. At the same
time, a very strong low/midlevel jet will overspread the region
ahead of a surface cold front. While severe storms appear likely on
Sunday and/or Monday, forecast guidance differs enough on the timing
of these features. Thus, uncertainty is too great to pinpoint where
severe storms may occur and on which day to include probabilities at
this time. Trends will be monitored closely for possible inclusion
of severe probabilities in the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2019