ACUS01 KWNS 230052
SPC AC 230051
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly hail and damaging winds are
possible over portions of southeast New Mexico and northwest Texas
this evening into the overnight.
...Southern High Plains tonight...
A mid-level low along the AZ/Mexico border will slowly drift east
tonight and favor shower/thunderstorm development through early
Tuesday morning. A surface front was analyzed this evening from
central OK southwest into west TX with increasingly moist low-level
flow impinging on the Permian Basin. Warm advection/frontal lift
will promote thunderstorms primarily along and north of the boundary
this evening. Although moisture is not considered overly robust,
steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8 degrees C/km) and strong
high-level flow will aid in storm organization and the potential for
large hail/severe gusts with the stronger storms. An arcing band of
strong/severe storms is expected over eastern NM this evening and
additional storms are likely to develop farther east from parts of
northwest TX into southwest OK late. For short-term details, please
refer to MCD number 421.
...Northwest IL this evening...
A smaller-scale mid-level speed max (50 kt at 500mb per the DVN
raob) will move across the mid MS Valley this evening. A squall
line exhibiting organization yielded a 40-kt gust at KDVN. Despite
gradual cooling during the next 1-2 hours, relatively steep lapse
rates co-located with adequately strong/veering flow in the lowest
6km may allow a marginal wind-damage risk to linger through the
early evening across portions of northwest IL before boundary-layer
stabilization lessens the strong-storm risk.