← Previous May 16, 2024 2:53 PM Next →
ACUS01 KWNS 161954 SWODY1 SPC AC 161953 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected into tonight across parts of Texas and Louisiana. The most concentrated corridor for damaging winds should occur across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to reflect latest observational and near-term guidance trends. Expectation is still for upscale growth into an MCS with increasing storm organization through this evening, focused on southeast TX into southwest LA. Otherwise, large to very large hail will remain possible along and north of the composite cold front/trailing outflow westward from the TX Hill Country to the Permian Basin. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ ...Central TX to southern LA through tonight... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX. Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could persist into tonight across southern LA. Other storms will likely form immediately ahead of the primary shortwave trough moving from southern NM toward west TX. Given the ongoing reinforcement of the rain-cooled air mass, any convection this afternoon from the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau will likely be elevated atop the outflow spreading southwestward. Wind profiles will favor supercells, with the primary threat of large hail. ...Elsewhere... No substantial changes to the low-end severe threats in the MRGL areas across the Ozarks, WI, and southeast FL. $$