Convective Outlook

Day 3 - Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

ACUS03 KWNS 140723
SPC AC 140722

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.


The mid/upper trough over the central U.S. will pivot northeast on
Wednesday, with the upper low positioned over New England and the
attendant trough swinging offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the
surface, a rapidly intensifying Nor'easter will track from coastal
NC to New England, while a cold front moves offshore the Atlantic
coast. The southern extent of the cold front will shift
south/southeast off the Gulf Coast and stall over northern/central
FL. Thunderstorm activity associated with the front from southern TX
through the southeastern U.S. will diminish through the morning
hours as upper forcing for ascent lifts northeast with the upper
trough. Strong shear and weak instability will exist across northern
FL through early afternoon. However, deep-layer flow will be
parallel to the front and thunderstorms are likely to be undercut by
the front itself or through any outflow interactions and severe
storms are not expected at this time. 

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night near the
Pacific Northwest coast as a shortwave trough moves inland.
Steepening midlevel lapse rates as temperatures cool aloft will
result in weak instability to support isolated thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2019