ACUS03 KWNS 240708
SPC AC 240707
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
Isolated severe storms capable of wind and hail are possible across
parts of the central High Plains into the northern Plains, and over
much of Montana on Wednesday.
An intense upper low will remain nearly stationary off the coastal
Pacific Northwest, with strong cyclonic flow aloft nosing into ID
and western MT. Shortwave ridging will occur over the northern High
Plains, with weak southwest flow aloft over the Front Range. Despite
rising heights over the Plains, temperatures aloft will remain cool.
A surface trough will develop from ID across MT and curving
southeast into the central High Plains, and will provide a focus for
To the east, moderate northwest flow aloft will stretch from the
upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes with a plume of mid 60s F
dewpoints extending northeast across Lakes Erie and Ontario. Here, a
weak surface trough may support isolated strong storms.
...Northern Plains to the central High Plains...
Strong heating along with convergence within the lee trough will
support widely spaced storms during the late afternoon, from the
Black Hills into the Texas Panhandle. Both hail and wind will be
possible within a relatively narrow north-south zone, the exception
being across SD where the nocturnal low-level jet may support an
MCS. Additional nocturnal storms cannot be ruled out across KS and
NE, but predictability is low.
Modest southeast low-level winds will bring 50s F dewpoints west
across MT, where heating will be strong resulting in MUCAPE in
excess of 500 J/kg. Hodographs will be elongated due to 40-50 kt
midlevel winds, supporting a few severe cells capable of hail or
wind during the afternoon.