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ACUS03 KWNS 160730 SWODY3 SPC AC 160729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 $$