Convective Outlook

Mesoscale Discussion - Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

ACUS11 KWNS 230224
SPC MCD 230224

Mesoscale Discussion 0422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0924 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Areas affected...Texas South Plains...northwest Texas into
southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94...

Valid 230224Z - 230400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94

SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose some risk for mostly
marginally severe hail through late evening, while developing
northeastward across the Texas South Plains, into southwestern
Oklahoma.  Severe wind potential appears low, but potential still
exists for some increase in strong surface gusts by Midnight-1 AM

DISCUSSION...Discrete thunderstorms have increased in number during
the past few hours.  MRMS-MESH suggests that strong cells may still
be occasionally producing marginally severe hail, and this probably
will continue at least another few hours in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear and thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep
mid-level lapse rates and weak to moderate CAPE.

Activity remains generally focused along a thermal gradient in the
850-700 mb layer, where it remains possible that forcing for ascent
associated with warm advection, beneath broadly difluent and
divergent upper flow, could support further upscale convective
growth and consolidation through 04-06Z.  If this occurs, a
gradually conglomerating surface cold pool could be accompanied by
some potential for strong, gusty surface winds.  Otherwise, as
southerly low-level flow remains generally weak, damaging wind
potential appears generally low.

..Kerr.. 04/23/2019

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33620226 34849958 33999937 33499962 32810130 32640228