Convective Outlook

Mesoscale Discussion - Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

ACUS11 KWNS 251137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251136
OKZ000-251330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern/central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251136Z - 251330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may continue with a
small cluster of storms for the next couple of hours. However, watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet over the central
and southern High Plains is expected to diurnally weaken over the
next 2-3 hours. This will likely reduce low-level mass influx into a
small cluster of storms located over part of northern OK at 1135Z. A
gradual weakening trend should likewise occur with this convection
as it continues to move southward into a convectively overturned
airmass across central OK this morning. In the meantime, isolated
wind gusts of 50-60 mph capable of occasional damage will remain
possible. A gust to 56 mph was recorded at the Alva OK Mesonet site
at 11Z. Given current expectations for gradual weakening and the
overall isolated threat, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not
currently anticipated for any portion of northern/central OK this
morning.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 08/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   36639887 36579833 36759794 36359756 35939731 35569719
            35199741 34969777 34939832 35039875 35529912 36189913
            36639887