Convective Outlook

Mesoscale Discussion - Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

ACUS11 KWNS 240919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240918
MSZ000-LAZ000-241115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Areas affected...Much of MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240918Z - 241115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as a weakening
convective line moves across MS.

DISCUSSION...Expansive convective line extends from northern MS
southward across western MS and then back southwestward across
central LA into central TX. North-south orientation of the line
moving through western MS is aligned more favorably to the
deep-shear vector than areas across LA or TX. Moderate low-level
flow has also been gradually strengthening ahead of this line with
the VAD profile from DGX now sampling 45 kt of southwesterly winds
at 1 km. These factors have resulting in some localized surges
within the line and a few strong wind gusts. A gust of 42 kt
reported at HEZ as the line move through.

Radar reflectivity trends suggest the line is weakening as it moves
eastward. Even so, isolated damaging wind gusts will remain possible
with this line as it continues eastward across much of MS. Marginal
nature of the severe threat and overall weakening trend are expected
to preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32769071 33769004 33718863 32568868 30858956 30809120
            31229156 31969112 32769071