Convective Outlook

Mesoscale Discussion - Storm Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma

ACUS11 KWNS 091734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091734
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Sun Dec 09 2018

Areas affected...portions of northern NC into southern WV and
central/southern VA

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 091734Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue for a few more hours across parts
of northwest NC and the higher terrain of southern WV and and
western VA. Heavier snowfall also will continue to spread northeast
into parts of central VA into early evening. A mix of snow and
freezing rain and/or sleet also is possible across north-central NC
into south-central VA the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Expansive area of moderate to heavy snowfall continues
across parts of NC, WV and VA early this afternoon. The surface low
is currently located just offshore the SC coast, and will continue
to shift northeast near the NC coast through this evening. midlevel
moisture wrapping around the low level cyclone and forcing for
ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough (currently over the
TN Valley) will maintain wintry precip into the afternoon. A dry
slot noted in WV imagery will continue to stream across NC and into
eastern VA and some warming will occur over this area. As a result,
snow may mix with freezing rain and/or sleet at times across
north-central NC into south-central VA.

Otherwise, cold air damming with a well-established cold conveyor is
evident in observations across the Piedmont. Moderate to heavy snow
will persist in this regime across the higher terrain and spread
northeast into parts of central VA through the afternoon. Snowfall
rates will generally be around 1 inch per hour, though heavier
bursts approaching 2 inches per hour are possible. Precipitation
will gradually wane from southwest (across NC) to northeast (WV and
parts of VA) late this afternoon into this evening.

..Leitman.. 12/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35917922 35728036 35938125 36128151 36458188 36858190
            37438177 37808142 38068060 38447893 38507830 38447756
            38297706 38097673 37747670 37307681 37017694 36487754
            35917922