ACUS11 KWNS 140815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140814 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into extreme southwest GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 240...

Valid 140814Z - 140945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 240 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and a brief tornado will
spread eastward through the early morning.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends indicate that an earlier
well-developed MCS over the northeast Gulf of Mexico has experienced
some loss in organization and intensity, with warming cloud tops and
at least a temporary loss of the earlier more well-defined bowing
structure. This is likely due to the MCS moving through a region of
relatively weaker instability, generally along/north of the
effective surface front. 

However, some reintensification of this system cannot be ruled out
through the early morning. Notable low-level recovery was noted
between the 00Z and 06Z TLH soundings, with an increase of 2 g/kg in
the lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio. Observed temperatures and
dewpoints remain in the low 70s F from the immediate coastline into
eastern parts of the Panhandle, sufficient to support MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg. Rather strong deep-layer shear will continue to
support organized convection, and some potential for damaging wind
remains evident with any embedded stronger band of convection as the
MCS moves eastward through the early morning. Also, while low-level
flow is relatively modest, sufficient veering in the lowest 1-2 km
may support a threat for a brief tornado.

..Dean.. 05/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30718636 30968578 31078479 30958381 30308373 29698370
            29308374 29068416 28968466 29048534 29668566 29878620
            30718636